US Midterms 2026: Trump's Presidency Faces Referendum Amid Record Early Voting

Tuesday's US midterm elections are shaping up as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency, even though his name is not on the ballot. Over 53 million Americans have already cast their votes, setting a new record for early participation in a US midterm election, signaling heightened engagement.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats are contested. Democrats are increasingly optimistic about wresting control of both chambers from Republicans, driven by voter dissatisfaction with the economy and Trump's approval ratings. A Democratic takeover of either chamber would significantly complicate Trump's legislative agenda, while control of both would empower the opposition to investigate the administration and challenge presidential priorities.

Latest projections from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) on November 2 give Democrats an 84% chance of winning the House and a 65% probability of taking the Senate. Their model forecasts Democrats could secure 241 House seats and a 52-48 advantage in the upper chamber. Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to gain control. DDHQ specifically projects Democrat James Talarico with a 62% chance in Texas, Mary Peltola with a 61% chance in Alaska, and Troy Jackson with a 65% chance of defeating Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine.

The political environment is challenging for Republicans, with Trump's approval ratings under pressure and rising concern over the cost of living. The Iran war and administration's tariff battles have contributed to increased costs for fuel, fertilizer, and other goods, particularly impacting agricultural states. Trump has campaigned actively, urging supporters to treat the midterms as if he were on the ballot, holding rallies in states such as Iowa and Kansas.

Final polls offer some optimism for Democrats, though margins remain narrow. A New York Times/Siena University survey on November 1 showed Democrats leading in all seven closely watched Senate races it examined, including Texas (Talarico 50% vs. Ken Paxton 43%), Alaska (Peltola 48% vs. Dan Sullivan 46%), and Maine (Jackson 51% vs. Collins 45%). However, some races, like Iowa, were described as virtually tied, and the polling industry faces scrutiny after allegations of falsified data.

The shift in Latino voters is another critical factor. While Latino voters shifted 22 percentage points towards Republicans between 2020 and 2024, recent October surveys by NBC News/Telemundo and Pew Research Center show Trump's approval rating among Latino voters at just 27% and 24% respectively, suggesting a potential move back towards Democrats, with the economy and immigration remaining key concerns.

What to watch: The final vote counts and their implications for the remainder of Trump's term.

Editor's note: The report accurately summarizes the election context, polling data, and the specific concerns regarding Latino voter shifts.