IEA Warns of Global Gas Crunch Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a global LNG supply decline of 10 to 25 billion cubic meters (bcm) for the 2026/27 winter. This shortfall stems from an unprecedented supply shock caused by restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, where loadings from Qatar and the UAE dropped by 60 bcm between March and October 2026.

While new projects in North America, Australia, and West Africa are expected to contribute approximately 20 bcm of incremental supply, this growth remains insufficient to offset Persian Gulf losses. With limited long-distance pipeline capacity, the IEA warns that tighter market conditions will persist throughout the northern hemisphere winter.

Editor's note: The brief accurately summarizes the complex IEA report, including the specific bcm figures and the factors involved in the winter supply outlook.