Samvat 2083 Begins with Muted Stock Performance, Midcaps Outperform

The Samvat 2083, the new Hindu calendar year, began on a subdued note for India’s equity markets, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closing marginally lower during the hour-long ceremonial muhurat trading session on Sunday. This marked an end to an eight-year streak of gains for both indices on this special occasion. The Sensex concluded the session at 80,999, registering a slight dip of 0.04 per cent, while the Nifty 50 finished at 24,986, down 0.18 per cent. This performance also interrupted a seven-consecutive-session gaining streak for the key indices. For comparison, the last time these indices closed in the red on muhurat day was on October 19, 2017, at the start of Samvat 2074, when the Sensex fell 0.6 per cent to 32,390 and the Nifty 50 declined 0.63 per cent to 10,147.

Traders attributed the muted performance to typical profit booking and the Diwali holidays, during which market participation tends to be more ritualistic. The session was also part of a truncated trading week, with Tuesday being a market holiday. While the benchmark indices slipped, broader markets showed divergence, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising 0.1 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 advancing one per cent. Sectoral performance was mixed; banking and real estate, which had been strong gainers in the preceding five sessions, turned laggards, while Nifty Pharma, Nifty Media, and Nifty Healthcare indices ended higher. Market breadth was positive, with 2,716 stocks advancing against 736 declines on the NSE, and 3,253 advances against 937 declines on the BSE.

Looking ahead, market experts offer a cautiously optimistic outlook for Samvat 2083. Somil Mehta, head of retail research at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, acknowledged that the "last Samvat was very difficult for the markets" but expressed expectations for "very good market movement" in the new year. He highlighted that cooling crude prices are anticipated to improve inflation numbers, corporate earnings, and overall market performances this Samvat. Kresha Gupta, director and fund manager at Steptrade Capital, noted that despite a strong rally in the preceding week, the muhurat session was muted, emphasizing that the market in Samvat 2083 will increasingly "reward selectivity over broad-based exposure." She forecasts a broader-based earnings recovery and sustained economic growth, suggesting that significant market triggers are still needed for overwhelmingly bullish sentiment.

For the ordinary saver or taxpayer, this suggests a shift towards more discerning investment strategies. Instead of broad market exposure, the focus may need to be on "under-researched businesses with strong fundamentals rather than the top largecaps" for the next phase of wealth creation, according to Gupta. Beyond equities, the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) saw gold futures for December delivery marginally slip 0.02 per cent to ₹1.42 lakh per 10 gm, and silver futures ease 0.05 per cent to ₹1.85 lakh per kg. In contrast, crude oil futures for November delivery gained 1.13 per cent to ₹8,555 per barrel. The overall market capitalization of BSE-listed companies stood at ₹505.7 trillion, while NSE-listed companies reached ₹499.2 trillion. The key indices remain elevated in the short term despite corrections of about 15 per cent from April peaks, influenced by foreign institutional investor (FII) buying of ₹45,960 crore and domestic institutional investor (DII) selling of ₹24,197 crore last week.

Editor's note: The report is comprehensive, covering market performance, sectoral data, expert commentary, and commodity futures accurately.